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	<item xml:lang="fr">
		<title>Caract&#232;re unique des sciences du climat
</title>
		<link>https://www.grice.quelfutur.org/Caractere-unique-des-sciences-du-climat</link>
		<guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.grice.quelfutur.org/Caractere-unique-des-sciences-du-climat</guid>
		<dc:date>2018-05-02T06:22:18Z</dc:date>
		<dc:format>text/html</dc:format>
		<dc:language>fr</dc:language>
		<dc:creator>Daniel Williamson
</dc:creator>



		<description>&lt;p&gt;En quoi les sciences du climat sont-elles particuli&#232;res dans le paysage scientifique.&lt;/p&gt;

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&lt;a href="https://www.grice.quelfutur.org/-2017-2018-" rel="directory"&gt;2017-2018
&lt;/a&gt;


		</description>


 <content:encoded>&lt;div class='rss_texte'&gt;&lt;div class=&#034;cs_sommaire cs_sommaire_avec_fond&#034; id=&#034;outil_sommaire&#034;&gt; &lt;div class=&#034;cs_sommaire_inner&#034;&gt; &lt;div class=&#034;cs_sommaire_titre_avec_fond&#034;&gt; Sommaire &lt;/div&gt; &lt;div class=&#034;cs_sommaire_corps&#034;&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;&lt;a title=&#034;Daniel Williamson&#034; href='https://www.grice.quelfutur.org/spip/spip.php?page=backend#outil_sommaire_0'&gt;Daniel Williamson&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a title=&#034;R&#233;sum&#233;&#034; href='https://www.grice.quelfutur.org/spip/spip.php?page=backend#outil_sommaire_1'&gt;R&#233;sum&#233;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;/div&gt; &lt;/div&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p&gt;S&#233;ance organis&#233;e avec le soutien de l'&#233;cole doctorale UNITER (Sciences de l'Univers, de l'Espace, de la Terre et du Climat).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2 class=&#034;spip&#034; id=&#034;outil_sommaire_0&#034;&gt;&lt;a title=&#034;Sommaire&#034; href='https://www.grice.quelfutur.org/spip/spip.php?page=backend#outil_sommaire' class=&#034;sommaire_ancre&#034;&gt; &lt;/a&gt;Daniel Williamson&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&#034;https://emps.exeter.ac.uk/mathematics/staff/dw356&#034; class=&#034;spip_out&#034; rel=&#034;external&#034;&gt;Daniel Williamson&lt;/a&gt; est statisticien (University of Exeter). Il a effectu&#233; des recherches sur la prise de d&#233;cision et la quantification des incertitudes en rapport avec les probl&#232;mes ayant recours aux simulations num&#233;riques. Dans son travail, il s'est particuli&#232;rement int&#233;ress&#233; aux questions li&#233;es au changement climatique, &#224; la mod&#233;lisation climatique, au calibrage et au param&#233;trage, et &#224; l'utilisation des statistiques bay&#233;siennes dans le contexte de la mod&#233;lisation climatique.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2 class=&#034;spip&#034; id=&#034;outil_sommaire_1&#034;&gt;&lt;a title=&#034;Sommaire&#034; href='https://www.grice.quelfutur.org/spip/spip.php?page=backend#outil_sommaire' class=&#034;sommaire_ancre&#034;&gt; &lt;/a&gt;R&#233;sum&#233;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Through the Coupled Model Inter-comparison projects (CMIP) and a host of other satellite &#8220;MIPs&#8221;, climate science has developed its own unique approach to scientific discovery. By comparing the world's different climate models and their component parts across a series of centrally designed experiments on tuned runs, the field tests hypotheses and offers uncertainty quantification that is used to support policy makers in a way that is different from any other scientific field that uses computational models to understand the world. In this talk I will explore the question of whether or not this is sensible. Starting with the question of what climate models are and proceeding from there, I will explore the structure of climate science. I will focus particularly on uncertainty quantification : what it is, why it is important and how it is approached in climate science, including model tuning and estimation of model error. Finally, I will explore how MIPs might be optimally designed and used to quantify uncertainty.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
		
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